Petrol heads for R29,54 a litre in October as Mantashe rules out relief

Petrol is on course to break R29,50 a litre in October, and the two departments that could soften the blow have both said the tools available to them are limited.

Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe told Parliament this week that no interventions are currently planned to curb rising fuel prices, and that his department continues to administer prices as the legislation prescribes. Daily fuel price recoveries tracked by the Central Energy Fund have moved deeper into the red, adding roughly 30 cents a litre to under-recoveries over the past three days.

On the current numbers, motorists face an increase of between R2,47 and R2,62 a litre on petrol, with diesel in a similar range at between R2,42 and R2,81. That would take the petrol price to about R29,54 a litre. The wholesale price of 0,005% diesel sits at R30,05, and October could set a new record of R32,86 a litre.

What is pushing the price

Mantashe said the basic fuel price component of the price structure is driving the rise, and that this is the result of geopolitical volatility outside South Africa’s control. South Africa imports its fuel in rand terms, so the price at the pump moves with international crude and refined product markets and with the exchange rate, not with a decision taken in Pretoria.

The department is reviewing the regulatory accounting system, which will adjust margins across the fuel chain. That review is expected to be completed by March 2027, which places it well beyond the October increase.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana set out the other side of the problem last week. Treasury could cut the fuel tax components of the price, as it did in April 2026, but that relief cost the budget more than R17 billion. Recovering that money would mean cutting departmental budgets, raising other taxes or borrowing more.

Godongwana has said the government cannot fully shield consumers from the fuel price shock, and that doing so is not what the budget is for. Fiscal policy, he said, is meant to support sustainable public finances, debt stabilisation and measures that promote growth. Responding to cost-of-living pressure from external shocks, in his words, forms part of a broader whole-of-government programme and depends on those measures being implemented effectively.

He has not ruled out another round of temporary relief outright. Economists read it as unlikely.

How the year has gone

Prices have moved sharply in both directions through 2026. In March, 95 octane petrol sat at R20,30 a litre and diesel at R18,60. By April, petrol was R23,36 and diesel R26,11. May brought R26,63 and R31,88, which remains the diesel record. June set the petrol record at R28,06, with diesel at R29,26.

July and August gave motorists some room, with petrol easing to R26,10 and then R25,58. September pushed back up to R26,92 for petrol and R30,05 for diesel. October is projected at R29,54 and R32,86.

Petrol broke its previous all-time high in June 2026, when the effects of the Iran War worked through global energy markets. That record had stood at R26,74 a litre since July 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shook oil markets. Both conflicts are still running.

What it means for households

Fuel is not a single line in a budget. It is the cost of getting to work, of moving goods to a shop, of a taxi fare, of a delivery. When the petrol price rises by R2,50 a litre, a driver filling a 50 litre tank pays about R125 more for the same tank, and that cost travels through the economy in transport and food prices over the weeks that follow.

Gauteng has the highest number of petrol-driven commuters in the country, and the province’s roads carry the bulk of freight between the coast and the interior. A sustained increase at this level feeds into everything from school transport to the price of maize meal on a township shelf.

There is a case for targeted relief rather than a broad tax cut. Treasury’s own figures show that the April intervention removed R17 billion from the fiscus, and economists have argued that a general fuel tax reduction benefits every motorist equally, including those who do not need it. The alternative is to leave the price to move and direct support to households through existing programmes, which is closer to what Godongwana has described.

Either way, the October adjustment is set by the fuel price mechanism, not by a minister’s preference. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources publishes the monthly adjustment at the end of the month, and the new prices take effect at midnight on the first Wednesday of October.

Source: BusinessTech, More bad news about petrol prices in South Africa