Cape Town keeps the DA in charge but Johannesburg splits five ways, election poll finds

Cape Town voters would keep the Democratic Alliance in charge with an outright majority on 52.6%, while Johannesburg has fragmented into a five-party contest in which the DA leads on 35%, according to an eNCA/MarkData survey of voter intention ahead of the 4 November local government elections.

The poll, discussed on eNCA’s SA Explained programme and published on the broadcaster’s YouTube channel, is a snapshot of how South Africans say they intend to vote. The DA’s Cape Town figure is six percentage points down on 2021, and it is the first metro in the series where one party clears 50%. The ANC sits on 23.6% there, the EFF on 6.5% and the Patriotic Alliance on 4.9%, with the National Coloured Congress on 2.7% and Al Jama-ah on 1.7%.

Johannesburg is the more crowded picture. Five parties sit above 10%: the DA on 35%, the ANC 13 points behind, the MK Party on 12.5% in third, the EFF on 11.9% and ActionSA on 10%. ActionSA’s number is down from 16% in 2021 but up on 2024. The DA leads among every age group in Cape Town, including 63.2% of voters aged 55 and older and 57.4% of 18 to 24 year olds, with the EFF second among the youngest at 12.4%.

In Johannesburg the age picture reverses. The EFF leads among 18 to 24 year olds on 27.5%, with the MK Party second on 22.7% and the ANC third. The DA takes 28.8% of 25 to 34 year olds and 36.5% of 35 to 44 year olds, and among voters 55 and older it beats the ANC by nearly two to one, 47.1% to 24.4%.

Asked how well their municipality is run, 60% of Cape Town respondents gave a positive answer, against 35% negative. In Johannesburg 70% were negative and 29% positive, a net rating of minus 42%, slightly worse than Nelson Mandela Bay’s minus 41%. On infrastructure specifically, 63% of Johannesburg respondents said the metro had not managed electricity, roads and sewers well over the past five years, against 31% who said it had.

On who should be mayor of Cape Town, the DA’s candidate leads on 55.4%, well clear of the field. The ANC has not named a mayoral candidate, and the poll could not put a single ANC name to respondents. In Johannesburg the DA’s mayoral candidate leads on just over 30%, below her party’s 35%, while Herman Mashaba draws more than 23%, more than double ActionSA’s party support. The ANC’s Dada Morero is on 15% and the party’s other listed name on 3.9%.

Gun and gang violence splits blame in Cape Town. Just over 25% of respondents hold the city most responsible, around 23% the police ministry, about 21% the president and national government, and 14% the Western Cape government. The N2 wall barrier draws support from 69.6% of respondents, with about 20% opposed and 10% undecided, the strongest response to that question across the four metros polled so far.

Asked about hostility towards foreign nationals in Johannesburg, 38.5% of respondents said they are losing faith in government and believe they must take action themselves. The survey’s other listed responses were that areas of the city are dominated by foreigners and that control has been lost, and that people in Johannesburg are angry about the issue. Fewer than 10% said there is not much hostile feeling towards foreigners.

Language breakdowns in Johannesburg put the ANC on 43% among isiXhosa speakers with the EFF on 15%, the ANC on 31.3% among Sesotho speakers with the EFF on 23.9% and ActionSA on 16.3%, and the IFP leading among Zulu speakers on 34% ahead of the ANC on 28%.

On coalitions, the poll’s analyst set out four scenarios for Johannesburg: ANC with the MK Party, EFF and ActionSA. ANC with the MK Party, Patriotic Alliance and EFF. DA with ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus and Patriotic Alliance. And ANC with the EFF, ActionSA and Al Jama-ah. Three further metropolitan areas are due to be published in the series before election day.