Eskom holds winter demand for 476 days without loadshedding as diesel bill falls R4,84bn

Eskom met electricity demand through the 2026 winter period, including on overcast days when rooftop solar generation dropped sharply, the utility said in its weekly system update on Friday, 4 September 2026.

South Africa has now gone 476 consecutive days without loadshedding, a run that began on 16 May 2025 and stretches to about 16 months. The figure comes from Eskom’s own published update, which is available.

The numbers behind the winter

Eskom’s financial year-to-date energy availability factor, the measure of how much of the fleet is available to generate, has risen to 67,79% for the period 1 April to 3 September 2026. That is 6,49 percentage points better than the 61,3% recorded over the same stretch last year, and the utility describes it as its highest financial year-to-date figure in six years.

Unplanned outages have come down with it. The unplanned capacity loss factor for the financial year to date sits at 19,47%, against 26,99% previously, a drop of 7,52 percentage points. Average unplanned outages have fallen by 6 888MW over three years, from 16 097MW to 9 209MW, which Eskom compares to roughly the combined capacity of the Kusile and Kriel power stations.

Planned maintenance has moved in the opposite direction, which is the point of it. For the financial year to date, planned outages averaged 5 932MW, or 12,54% of total generation capacity, up from 5 266MW and 11,23% a year earlier. Three years ago the figure was 4 323MW, or 9,26%.

Diesel spending drops by more than 80%

The reduction in diesel-fired generation is where the money shows. Between 1 April and 3 September 2026, Eskom spent R1,08 billion on diesel for its open-cycle gas turbines, down from R5,93 billion over the same period last year. That is a decline of R4,84 billion, or 81,64%.

The load factor on those turbines, meaning how hard they were run relative to their capacity, fell from 7,92% to 1,11%. Eskom’s target annual load factor is 3%, so the utility is running its emergency generation well below the level it planned for. Open-cycle gas turbine generation for the year to date stands at 140,06GWh, about 86,01% lower than the same period last year. From March 2023 to March 2026, diesel expenditure fell by R23,0 billion.

Year to date, diesel expenditure declined by R4,84 billion, or 81,64%, compared to the same period last year, falling from R5,93 billion to R1,08 billion.

There is a caution in the short-term picture. Over the week of 28 August to 3 September 2026, the energy availability factor was 66,88%, lower than the 69,93% recorded in the same week last year, which Eskom attributes mainly to a higher planned capacity loss factor. Average unplanned outages for that week did improve, falling 548MW, or 6,4%, to 8 042MW, a reduction Eskom compares to the capacity of Grootvlei power station.

Load reduction is coming off the schedule

Away from the generation fleet, Eskom reported progress on load reduction, the targeted localised cuts it applies in areas where illegal connections and meter tampering overload the network.

Seven of the nine provinces are now entirely free of load reduction, and 571 of the 971 targeted feeders have been removed from the programme, about 59% of the total. An estimated 1 222 430 customers have been restored to normal supply, roughly 72% of the 1,69 million customers the programme targets. The share of Eskom’s customer base still affected has fallen to 6,5%. Eskom says it remains on track to end load reduction nationally by March 2027.

The utility has installed 512 257 smart meters on load reduction feeders, about 89% of its 577 347 target for high-priority areas, with roughly 82% of those installations in Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal. A total of 546 576 customers are registered for Free Basic Electricity, up about 13% from a baseline of 485 000 and about 26% of the 2,1 million customers eligible for it.

Eskom also recorded the friction that comes with the rollout. Resistance in some areas, including safety incidents, intimidation and work stoppages, has affected more than 122 000 planned smart meter installations to date, despite engagement through ward councillors, public meetings and media platforms.

What it means for the grid

For the evening peak on the day of the update, Eskom forecast demand of 22 317MW against available capacity of 27 576MW. A further 2 160MW was expected back online ahead of the evening peak on Monday, 7 September 2026, and 6 220MW sits in cold reserve because of excess capacity.

Eskom’s next weekly system update is due on Friday, 11 September 2026, with its Summer Outlook to follow during September.

Source: Eskom. Read the original item.