Debt ratio drops to 74.6% as Treasury reworks the books on new GDP figures
Stats SA's rebasing lifted measured nominal GDP by R393 billion, and National Treasury says the mechanical adjustment puts the debt peak a year earlier than the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement forecast.
National Treasury says Statistics South Africa’s 2026 rebasing and benchmarking of gross domestic product data has raised the measured level of nominal GDP by 5.1%, or R393 billion, and it has updated the fiscal ratios that use GDP as their denominator.
The debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 74.6% in 2025/26, Treasury said, down from the 78.4% estimated in the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement. The ratio falls below 70% by 2032/33, a year earlier than the MTBPS forecast.
Other ratios moved too. The primary surplus is now 1.6% of GDP in 2026/27 against 1.7% in the MTBPS, rising to 2.8% in 2029/30 against 2.9%. The main budget deficit for 2026/27 is now 3.5% of GDP, down from 3.7%.
Treasury was explicit that this is arithmetic rather than new policy. The revised ratios, it said, reflect a mechanical adjustment based on Stats SA’s revised data and do not reflect changes to government’s revenue, spending or debt projections. On average the consolidated budget deficit improves by 0.2 percentage points of GDP for the current fiscal year and over the medium term, while the main budget primary surplus is revised down by an average of 0.1 percentage points over the medium term.
Stats SA announced the revision on 29 October 2026. Treasury said the benchmarking exercise uses improved data and methods to fold major changes in the economy’s structure into the GDP calculation, and that historically the five-yearly exercises have often increased the estimated size of the economy without meaningfully changing growth rates.
“Our updated calculations confirm that government continues to achieve its fiscal targets, with the fiscal metrics looking even better than we had projected based on Statistics South Africa’s revised GDP data,” Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said. “We are restoring fiscal credibility and South Africa is seeing the benefits in lower borrowing costs and a stronger foundation for investment and growth.”
The claim that lower borrowing costs are being realised is Treasury’s own. The document carries no market data on yields or spreads, and it states no revised growth forecast.
The 2027 Budget will carry further detail, including updated economic forecasts and fiscal projections.
This report is drawn from National Treasury’s statement as published by SAnews (South African Government News Agency): https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/revised-gdp-figures-improve-key-fiscal-ratios
