Tax take revised up R17.1 billion as Godongwana warns the commodity windfall will fade

South Africa’s gross tax revenue forecast for 2026/27 has been revised upwards by R17.1 billion, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana told Parliament on Wednesday, on stronger-than-expected collections from corporate income tax, dividends tax and VAT.

The revised figure, announced in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, improves on the estimate set out in February. Godongwana was direct about where much of the extra money comes from and how long it is likely to last.

“A large portion of this improvement is due to higher commodity prices, and these gains are expected to dissipate over the medium term,” he said.

Overall, gross tax revenue is projected to rise from R2.14 trillion this year to R2.53 trillion in 2029/30.

The minister said the South African Revenue Service continues to strengthen revenue administration and improve compliance, and is playing a central role in the government’s campaign against the illicit economy, particularly the illegal alcohol and tobacco trades.

“Through customs and excise modernisation, which includes enhanced cargo scanning, track-and-trace capabilities, and stronger frontline enforcement, SARS is disrupting the networks that enable illicit trade,” Godongwana said.

He said a more detailed update on the National Illicit Economy Disruption Programme would come in next year’s Budget.

The figures and quotations here are drawn from the SAnews (South African Government News Agency) report of the MTBPS, which is a summary of the minister’s statement rather than the full text of the policy statement itself. The complete document, including the detailed revenue tables behind the R17.1 billion revision, sits with National Treasury. The source report can be read at https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/gross-tax-revenue-forecast-revised-upwards.