Ekurhuleni set to fall: ANC support to collapse from 38% to 22% as ActionSA surges

Ekurhuleni is projected to fall to the Democratic Alliance, with the ANC’s support in the metro sliding from 38% to about 22%, according to an eNCA MarkData election projection published on 5 November.

The same projection puts the DA on about 29% in the municipality, a share that has held relatively steady. The party does not win the metro by growing. It wins it as the ANC’s support drops away and ActionSA takes a large slice of what the governing party loses.

ActionSA is projected at between 15% and 19% of the vote. In the previous local government election the party took 7% and 15 seats in Ekurhuleni, so the projection has it more than doubling its support. eNCA quoted election analyst Wayne Sussman describing ActionSA as having emerged as a significant role player.

The projection also points to the party’s mayoral candidate, Xolani Khumalo, as a factor in its performance. eNCA did not put a figure on how much of the ActionSA gain is attributed to him.

For a reader in Ekurhuleni, the numbers translate into a change of management at the metro that runs the water, electricity, refuse and roads in one of the country’s largest urban economies. A party that finishes first in a metro does not automatically govern it. Coalitions are negotiated after the count, and the mayoral chain goes to whoever can put together a majority in the council. On these numbers no single party is close to a majority, so the post-election bargaining among the DA, ActionSA and the ANC’s remaining councillors is where the metro’s next administration will actually be decided.

The projection is not a result. The IEC was still counting, with 34.8% of results captured at the time of the eNCA report, and parties have until 5pm on Friday to challenge results. Projections can move as more votes are captured, particularly in a metro as large and as mixed as Ekurhuleni, where the tally from the townships, the towns and the industrial belt does not come in at the same pace.

What the projection does establish is the shape of the contest. The ANC carried Ekurhuleni at 38% in the last local government election. If the 22% figure holds, the party loses roughly sixteen points in a metro it has treated as its own, and it loses them to a party that was not in the council a decade ago.

As eNCA reported on 5 November, the projection is the outlet’s own MarkData modelling and not an IEC declaration. The final result will be the one the IEC captures and confirms.